How CityCheck Calculates Safety Grades
CityCheck grades 3,212 US cities on a scale from A+ to F based on their total crime rate per 1,000 residents, calculated from FBI Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) data. Cities are ranked against all other tracked cities using percentile-based scoring. A city in the 90th percentile (safer than 90% of cities) earns an A. A city below the 10th percentile earns an F. Each city also receives a risk level from Low to Very High based on where it falls in the national distribution.
Our Data Sources
CityCheck uses FBI Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) data as its foundation. The national averages that anchor our grading system come directly from the 2023 FBI UCR release:
| Category | National Average (per 100K) |
|---|---|
| Violent Crime (composite) | 363.8 |
| Property Crime (composite) | 1,832.3 |
| Murder | 5.7 |
| Aggravated Assault | 268.2 |
| Robbery | 63.3 |
| Burglary | 269.8 |
| Larceny-Theft | 1,401.5 |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 318.3 |
33 of the most-searched cities (including New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston, and others) use direct FBI crime rate overrides calibrated to actual 2023 UCR data for maximum accuracy. For the remaining cities, CityCheck uses a statistical model that factors in population size, state-level crime patterns, and city-specific variation, all calibrated against known FBI benchmarks.
We are transparent about this: our Phase 1 data uses statistical modeling calibrated against FBI Uniform Crime Reporting data. We are actively integrating full FBI UCR datasets for all 3,212 cities. Population data comes from the U.S. Census Bureau.
For full details on data provenance, see our Data Sources page.
How Grades Work
CityCheck assigns letter grades from A+ to F based on a city's national percentile ranking. The percentile indicates what percentage of US cities have higher crime rates. A city at the 85th percentile is safer than 85% of all tracked cities.
| Grade | Percentile Range | Risk Level | Meaning |
|---|---|---|---|
| A+ | 98-99 | Low Risk | Top 2% safest |
| A | 90-97 | Low Risk | Top 10% safest |
| A- | 80-89 | Low Risk | Top 20% safest |
| B+ | 70-79 | Below Average Risk | Above average safety |
| B | 60-69 | Below Average Risk | Safer than most |
| B- | 50-59 | Moderate | Near the national median |
| C+ | 40-49 | Moderate | Slightly below average |
| C | 30-39 | Elevated | Below average |
| C- | 25-29 | Elevated | Notably below average |
| D+ | 20-24 | High Risk | Elevated crime |
| D | 15-19 | High Risk | High crime |
| D- | 10-14 | High Risk | Very high crime |
| F | Below 10 | Very High Risk | Bottom 10% |
Grades are calculated independently for overall crime, violent crime, and property crime. A city can have a B for violent crime but a D for property crime. The overall grade reflects the combined rate.
Risk Levels Explained
In addition to letter grades, CityCheck assigns risk levels that provide a plain-English assessment of relative safety. Risk levels map to percentile ranges:
Among the safest 20% of US cities. Crime rates are well below the national average.
Safer than most cities. Crime rates are below the national average.
Near the national median. Crime rates are close to average for a US city.
Below average safety. Crime rates exceed the national average noticeably.
Significantly above-average crime rates. Caution is recommended.
Among the highest-crime cities in the country. Crime rates far exceed the national average.
Crime Categories We Track
CityCheck tracks eight crime categories, split into violent crime and property crime. Each category is scored and graded independently so users can understand not just how safe a city is overall, but which specific crime types are the biggest concern.
Violent Crime Categories
Violent crime includes offenses where force or the threat of force is used against a victim.
Sum of all violent offenses: murder, assault, robbery, and rape. The FBI's primary violent crime metric.
Murder and non-negligent manslaughter. The willful killing of one person by another, excluding negligence, suicide, and justifiable homicide.
Unlawful attack upon a person for the purpose of inflicting severe bodily injury, typically involving a weapon. The most common violent crime.
Taking or attempting to take anything of value from a person by force or threat of force. Unlike burglary, involves direct confrontation.
Property Crime Categories
Property crime involves the taking of money or property without force or threat of force against a victim.
Sum of all property offenses: burglary, larceny-theft, and motor vehicle theft. Property crime is far more common than violent crime.
Unlawful entry of a structure to commit a felony or theft. Includes attempts. Residential burglary is the most common form.
Unlawful taking of property from another person. Includes shoplifting, pocket-picking, purse-snatching, bicycle theft, and theft from vehicles. The single most common crime in the United States.
Theft or attempted theft of a motor vehicle, including cars, trucks, motorcycles, and ATVs. Does not include temporary use when abandoned by the offender.
How We Calculate Victim Odds
Every city page includes a "1 in X" victim odds figure. This represents the approximate chance of any resident being affected by crime in a given year, based on the city's total crime rate.
Formula:
Victim Odds = 1,000 / (total crimes per 1,000 residents)
Or equivalently: 100,000 / (total crimes per 100,000 residents)
Example: New York City
- Violent crime rate: 380 per 100K
- Property crime rate: 1,600 per 100K
- Total: 1,980 per 100K = 19.8 per 1K
- Victim odds: 1,000 / 19.8 = approximately 1 in 51
This is a statistical estimate, not a prediction. Actual risk varies by neighborhood, time of day, and individual behavior.
How We Compare Cities
CityCheck compares cities at three levels: against the national average, against the state average, and against all 3,212 cities via percentile ranking.
National Average Comparison
Each crime rate is compared against the FBI national average. If a city's violent crime rate is 500 per 100K and the national average is 363.8, the city is 37% above the national average for violent crime.
State Average Comparison
CityCheck calculates the average crime rate across all tracked cities in each state. This shows whether a city is safe relative to its state, not just the nation. A city might be above the national average but below its state average if the state has overall high crime.
Percentile Ranking
The national percentile tells you where a city falls relative to all 3,212 tracked cities. The 75th percentile means the city is safer than 75% of all cities. This is the primary input for the letter grade. Percentiles use a normal distribution model centered on the median US city crime rate.
Scoring Model Details
For cities without direct FBI overrides, CityCheck's scoring model considers three factors:
1. Population influence
Larger cities tend to have slightly higher crime rates than smaller cities. The model applies a gentle population curve, not a steep penalty. A city of 10,000 gets a near-zero adjustment; a city of 1 million gets a small upward adjustment.
2. State-level modifier
Some states have consistently higher or lower crime than the national average. Louisiana, Alaska, and New Mexico receive upward adjustments. Maine, Vermont, and New Hampshire receive downward adjustments. This reflects real regional differences in crime patterns.
3. City-specific variation
A deterministic variation factor ensures that cities within the same state and population range do not all receive identical scores. This reflects the reality that two similarly-sized cities in the same state can have very different crime profiles.
Frequently Asked Questions
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CityCheck safety grades use FBI Uniform Crime Report data and U.S. Census Bureau population estimates. This methodology page was last updated October 2026.
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CityCheck covers safety grades, crime data, and things to do for every US city.
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